EURussiaCentreEU-Russia Centre

Russian Domestic Policy- January 2010

05 Фев 2010 — Эберхард Шнайдер, Профессор, член Совещательного совета Центра ЕС-Россия
Комментариев нет

Kremlin Insider on 2012 Presidential Elections
In a 20th January interview, Vladimir Putin’s long standing mentor, Gleb Pavlovsky, said that one of the former President’s biggest mistakes had been to concentrate on forming majorities with major urban players while ignoring any kind of dialogue with minority groups. By minority groups he meant those with intellectual, creative and innovative leanings. As a result, a vacuum had been created that had been filled with radical ideas and activists and more dangerously, informal structures representing the state, security and interior services.

Dmitry Medvedev had achieved recognition as the country’s President, rising above all among those involved in the bureaucracy. This was not an easy task as he came to office on Putin’s recommendation, but he has won a reputation for independence that will stand him in good stead at the next elections. He has dedicated himself to modernisation and during the course of 2010 he will need to demonstrate at least some measure of success in this area. If there are no major crises in the coming year and Medvedev can get his modernisation programme off the ground without problems, Pavlovsky believes that he could become a presidential candidate in 2011 with a good chance of success in the 2012 election.

Medvedev’s main problem, however, is his ‘timidity and caution.’ He has raissed expectations that he knows cannot be fulfilled. During 2010, he will need to ensure support from the general public and elite groups based on successes achieved in his modernisation programme that will also determine who gives way to whom, him or Putin. Pavlovsky’s ideal scenario would be a third candidate supported by both Putin and Medvedev, but he acknowledges that this is unrealistic. Failing that, the next best situation would be that Medvedev retains the support of the various elites and the public, a fact that Putin accepts. Putin would, in this scenario, give way to Medvedev, but only if there are no catastrophes in the Kremlin. Medvedev, however, has one major handicap compared to Putin: he does not have the support of a political party that has a two-thirds majority in the Duma as Putin does with United Russia.

Changes in the Regions
A New Region in North Caucasus
A new federal region has been created in the North Caucasus that brings together the republics of Dagestan, Ingushetia, Kabardino-Balkaria, Karachaevo-Cherkessia, North Ossetia-Alanya and Chechnya, as well as the relatively good economy of Stavropol. Medvedev has named Alexander Khloponin as his representative in the region and also Deputy Prime Minister responsible for the North Caucasus. The new federal region has been created to deal with the difficult situation of unemployment, white collar crime and nepotism. These problems cannot be dealt with via the justice system. They require economic modernisation for which Khloponin with his economic and finance background is suited. In addition he comes from outside the region and has no connections to the local vested interests, economic mafias or military and security organisations. Khloponin is also a member of United Russia’s ruling committee.

Other Regional Developments
Sergei Darkin was elected on 11 January 2010 for a third term as governor of the Far East region. Despite being questioned in 2008 concerning irregularities in the privatisation of government property and attracting some personal scandal; support from United Russia (the largest political group in the region’s parliament) and a visit from Putin at the end of 2009 ensured his re-election.

Alexander Berdikov was re-elected as governor of the Altai Republic. His victory over the other two proposed candidates was secured on a promise to unite the republic with the neighbouring region of Altai, thus laying the political groundwork for the GASPROM-CNPC (China’s largest gas and oil concern) pipeline to China.

Journalists Send an Open Letter to the Minister of the Interior
On 12 December 2009, a photographer (Andrei Stenin) from the state news agency RIA Novosti was sent to cover an unauthorised protest and was subsequently arrested. The local security services ignored his statement (that he was there for his news agency) and sent him to court where he was fined 500 roubles (€12) for breaking the law.

An open letter was not just signed by journalists working for news organisations critical of the government, but also by those working for state television, GASPROM controlled channel NTV, Russia Today, the state channel for abroad, state news agencies RIA-Novosti, Prime-TASS and daily newspaper Izvestia, to name just some of the signatories. The letter accused the security services of violating the Russian constitution’s guarantee of citizens’ rights and freedoms and in Stenin’s case, the use of false evidence. The letter called upon the Minister of the Interior to undertake measures to protect citizens in general, and journalists in particular, from illegal attempts by law enforcement agencies to interfere with rights and freedoms.

Meanwhile the issue has been taken up by the Public Chamber, an organisation whose field of activity has been enlarged by Medvedev. The Chamber rejected the Stenin decision as absurd and expressed concern about the increasing number of unreasonable cases brought against journalists by the security services. They have suggested a meeting between the Ministry of the Interior, newspaper editors and chiefs of news agencies in order to create a system of cooperation between law enforcement agencies and the mass media.